Thursday, May 05, 2011

Isn't the Market Marvelous?

WSJ Headline today:

Oil Falls Below $100 in Commodities Rout

Oil futures ended below $100 a barrel amid a broad commodity selloff, weighed by worries about falling U.S. demand amid $4-a-gallon prices at the pump.

More from the WSJ:

Some reaction on the sharp selloff in commodities. The rout is getting deeper. Crude is now down 8%. Silver down by 9%. Copper down by 3.5%. Gold falling by 2.5%, bidding adieu to $1,500 and falling under that level. Here’s what some market watchers are saying:

Tony Crescenzi, PIMCO: The ending of a tulip-mania style move in silver will put more caution into those who would speculate in commodities markets, limiting the harm commodity price increases will cause the economy. Therefore, while moderation in economic growth has occurred, it has its benefits and it will keep the game going for longer because the urgency for central bankers to move quickly has diminished somewhat now that commodity prices have hit a much needed speed bump.

Marc Chander, Brown Brothers Harriman: A disappointing US jobs number tomorrow is likely to keep the dollar firm against the “growth” sensitive currencies, as further consolidation in equities and commodities is likely accelerate their recent losses. Overall, the NOK [Norwegian Kroner] and AUD [Austrailian Dollar] are the most sensitive to changes in broad commodity baskets, although potential NOK weakness may be tempered by heightened expectations of a rate hike by the Norges Bank next week.

Michael Shaoul, Oscar Gruss: “Today is turning into one of the uglier sessions for those who have chased recent trends in commodity and currency markets.”

It's not good to chase market "trends": Investing 101.

No comments: